A look at the future of wine: James Mayor reflects on the challenges and the future of winemaking

From technological changes in scheduling and picking, to new weather patterns affecting grape harvesting dates, and emerging market trends shaping the wine industry as a whole

When we gaze into the future, the horizon can sometimes seem a little blurred. How many of the game-changing events of the last few years – Brexit, Covid, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – would we have predicted?

The same uncertainty applies if we consider the future of winemaking and its drinking.

Nonetheless, a few likely future developments emerge from the vineyard mists, characterised by changing attitudes and behaviours that will increasingly affect wines and their markets.

Climate change

Vintners in all wine-producing regions are talking about the increasing effect of unpredictable weather events on what happens in the vineyard.

These events have recently included wildfires destroying vineyards in Greece and California, late frosts and hailstorms causing extensive damage in the French vineyards of Chablis and the Jura, and flooding in Germany, whilst in some areas excessive rainfall is leading to an increase in vineyard diseases such as mildew.

Grape picking dates have now become of critical importance, with vintners anxiously scrutinising weather forecasts to choose an often narrow window of opportunity between the optimum sunshine needed for ripening and summer storms that shrink yields and dilute flavour.

Hotter, dryer weather is already redrawing the wine production map. Some areas are becoming increasingly less suitable for vine planting, whilst others are providing exciting opportunities to the enterprising.

Germany, historically a white wine-producing country with its famed Mosel wines, now also produces excellent reds.

Sweden is surprisingly making a small quantity of whites often with good acidity and flavour. The English sparkling wine industry is no longer a novelty, with production struggling to keep up with demand, whilst investors rush to buy vineyards and vintners hang awards on winery walls. Burgundy, where prices for a good bottle are currently often ludicrously high, is facing dire water shortages in some vineyards predicted to extinguish wine production within a couple of decades.

Viticulture

Wine producers are racing to develop grape varieties that are both climate resilient and disease resistant.

Low-intervention farming is integrating sparse use of pesticides harmful to the soil and lethal to helpful insects, as well as prioritising minimal irrigation.

Old vines are enjoying a renaissance, particularly in Europe: with their deep roots, not only have they proven their resilience, but they also thrive in a dryer environment.

An avant-garde Burgundian winery, Domaine Dujac, has been specially designed to capture the carbon released through grape fermentation. For now, this is fairly futuristic stuff, but hopefully within a few years carbon capture will become more widespread and less expensive.

Tech

As in many areas of agriculture, wine production is becoming increasingly tech-savvy, with an increase in vineyard robotics for treatments and picking.

Computerised vineyard mapping is also allowing precise picking and fermentation schedules that are having a positive impact on quality.

Risk

Winemaking, like much of farming, remains an activity with high levels of exposure to unexpected events.

In addition to extreme weather incidents, tax hikes and sudden, aggressive tariffs (such as those imposed for several years on Australian wines by China), or even a bank collapse (for example Silicon Valley Bank), all represent potential risks.

Market trends

By some accounts the English consumed more wine in medieval times than they do today. Be this as it may, we are now seeing a global movement in wine consumption that favours less but better, and premiumisation in production.

The wine market is in fact shrinking, with wine competing against increasingly creative spirits, craft beers, and even abstention.

As consumers (in particular younger consumers) become more informed about what they are drinking, and more concerned about the future of the planet, there is pressure on vintners to seek certification for their wines, guaranteeing production using farming methods that include bio-diverse, bio-dynamic and regenerative techniques, and production of natural and organic wines.

This movement will undoubtedly grow, and surveys show increasing willingness to pay more for a sustainable product.

Wine labelling will increasingly promote the environmental and farming authenticity of the wine in the bottle, backed up by interactive apps, digital information in wine stores and winery websites.

Packaging

Packaging, and in particular glass bottles represent by far the largest share of a winery’s carbon footprint.

Glass bottles are perfect for wine which is going to be aged, but aged wine only accounts for a tiny 5% (maximum) of the market, and other practical, easy to store alternatives exist, such as bag-in-box and cans, which have absolutely no detrimental effect on the wine’s flavour.

The energy consumed to heat furnaces for creating glass, and then for transporting bottles, is enormous. It needs to be emphasised there is no connection between the weight of a bottle and the quality of the wine it contains – with current improvements to bottle design, 400g should be more than enough! It is equally important that bottles be recycled effectively… rather than go to landfill.

Diversity

An important trend of recent years, which shows no sign of slowing, is the rise of the female consumer.

Joana Maçanita is one of the leading figures driving the rise of women winemakers in portugal

More women are choosing the wine in a restaurant or buying for home consumption. Women are also more likely to choose wine tourism than men.

The market, and marketing, is equally becoming more ethnically diverse, a huge opportunity for wine producers.

In Portugal, Taylor’s Port sponsor Golden Vines Diversity scholarships to foster greater diversity in wine professions.

One third of all Masters of Wine are currently women, and among those passing the challenging exams this proportion is rising fast.

Someone special

A bottle of wine has always tasted best when shared with someone special or a group of friends (in which case, several bottles are recommended), the grape being a gregarious product that can lead to good conversations.

As our lifestyles continue to evolve, so will our wine consumption habits: expect more low-alcohol, pale wines.

A lot of serious work goes into making good wine but expect less pretentiousness in wine criticism and at restaurants, and engaging websites with well-sourced, less-easy-to-come-by bottles, such as Portugal’s The Wine Fellas.

Wine tourism can be a fun and informative way to learn about winemaking and appreciation. California may perhaps still be tops in this field, but Portugal is equally developing an increasingly sophisticated wine tourism offer, tailored for all budgets and interest levels.

First published Essential Algarve, February 2025